New research reveals that more than 55 percent of countries failed to fully meet their 2020 climate commitments established 15 years ago during the Copenhagen Climate Summit.
Led by researchers from the University College London (UCL), new findings published in the journal Nature Climate Change, say 19 out of 34 countries have failed to hit their climate targets established at COP15. The study compared the actual net carbon emissions of more than 30 nations to their 2009 pledged emission reduction targets from the Copenhagen Climate Summit. This effort, led by researchers at UCL and Tsinghua University, marks the first comprehensive assessment of countries’ ability to fulfill their Nationally Determined Contribution reduction pledges from COP15.
Of the nations analyzed, 15 successfully achieved their goals, while 12 failed outright. Those that met goals are Bulgaria, Croatia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Germany, Greece, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Those that missed targets include Australia, Austria, Canada, Cyprus, Ireland, Japan, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, and Switzerland. The remaining seven countries, Belgium, Czech Republic, France, Hungary, Luxembourg, Malta, and Poland, constituted a “halfway group,” reducing carbon emissions within their borders but partially offsetting these reductions through trade, a practice known as “carbon leakage” or “carbon transfer.” To track carbon leakage, researchers employed a “consumption-based” emissions tracking method, providing a more holistic calculation of a country’s total carbon emissions. This method considers emissions from economic activities within a nation’s borders and also factors in the carbon footprint of imported goods manufactured abroad.
Tracking emissions
Lead author Professor Jing Meng of the UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction, emphasized the importance of comprehensive carbon emissions tracking. “It’s important to be able to completely track carbon emissions, even when they’re offshored, enabled by consumption-based analysis,” Meng said in a statement. “Our concern is that the countries that struggled to reach their commitment from 2009 will likely encounter even more substantial difficulties reducing emissions even further.”
Established during the 2009 COP15 international climate summit in Copenhagen, these emissions goals varied widely among nations. Croatia committed to reducing carbon emissions by five percent, while Switzerland aimed for a 20-30 percent reduction by 2020, relative to 1990 levels. The study underscores the challenges posed by differing starting points and highlights disparities among countries’ ability to achieve their targets. The research also warns that countries encountering difficulties in meeting their COP15 goals may face even greater challenges as energy demand rises with economic expansion. Despite efforts to transition to clean energy and improve energy efficiency, some nations struggled to meet their targets due to increased consumption associated with rising GDP per capita and population growth.
In contrast to COP15, the more recent Paris Agreement, signed in 2015 at COP21, established a comprehensive framework aimed at reducing carbon emissions. However, challenges persist, says senior author Professor Dabo Guan from UCL Bartlett School of Sustainable Construction. “Reducing emissions is critical to combat the ongoing climate crisis. To do this, it’s imperative we have an accurate and reliable account of emissions, and this research shows some of the challenges countries face to reduce emissions while maintaining their economic growth,” Guan said. “Developed countries have a dual role — rapidly reducing their own emissions, and providing financial aid and capacity building to developing countries, which most of them deliver insufficiently.”
The impact of reducing emissions
In a separate effort, researchers from the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) developed a new method to assess the economic impacts of climate policy measures. Led by Johannes Stangl, the study, published in the journal Nature Sustainability, aims to minimize economic damage while transitioning toward climate neutrality. “To understand how climate policy measures will affect a country’s economy, it’s not sufficient to have data on carbon dioxide emissions. We must also understand the role that companies play in the economy,” Stangl said.
The study, which utilized data from Hungary representing the entire economy, explored various scenarios aimed at reducing CO2 emissions by 20 percent. Researchers identified a two-factor approach crucial to understanding the economic consequences of climate policies. According to Stefan Thurner from CSH, considering both a company’s CO2 emissions and its role in the supply network is essential. “Two factors are crucial — the CO2 emissions of a company, as well as what systemic risks are associated with it,” Thurner said. This approach led to the development of the Economic Systemic Risk Index (ESRI), which estimates the economic loss if a company ceased production.
“In the first scenario, we looked at what would happen if only CO2 emissions were taken into account,” Thurner said. To achieve the 20 percent reduction in emissions, the researchers say the country’s seven largest emitters would have to cease operations. “In the meantime, however, around 29 percent of jobs and 32 percent of the country’s economic output would be lost. The idea is completely unrealistic; no politician would ever attempt such a thing,” says Thurner. But analyzing the top 23 companies with large emissions relative to their economic impact, researchers found that a 20 percent reduction in CO2 emissions would only result in a loss of two percent of jobs and two percent of economic output.
The researchers say they want to further explore new methods of achieving a green economic transformation. “However, our study clearly shows that we need to take the supply network at the company level into account if we want to evaluate what a particular climate policy will achieve,” they noted.
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